The identity forecast: 5 predictions for building trust in 2026

Identity verification has never stood still – it’s evolved in waves, each building on the last. First came the era of global data, where APIs connected information from across the world. Then smartphones ushered in document capture, followed by the rise of biometrics – from thumbprints to facial recognition – and later behavioural biometrics layered on top of digital signals like device IDs and email addresses. Today, these elements don’t exist in isolation; they converge to create complex, adaptive identity ecosystems.

And the pace is accelerating. With innovations such as agentic AI and Digital IDs driving the next waves, organizations can’t afford to stand still. In 2026, businesses that thrive will be those ready to adapt – blending trust, compliance, and seamless experiences to navigate the evolving identity landscape.

So, what’s next? We asked our identity experts to share their predictions for the future of identity verification – here’s what they said.

1. AI will power the next generation of identity verification

Fraudsters have embraced generative AI to create deepfakes, synthetic identities, forged documents and even automated injection attacks. In 2026, effective defenses will be built on equally advanced AI applied at document, biometric and behavioral layers.

Deepfake & document forgery detection becomes standard: advanced image inspection, texture and lighting analysis and metadata checks will be embedded into document and selfie flows to spot AI generated artifacts and tampering before they reach downstream systems.
Continuous monitoring of biometric and behavioral signals: beyond onetime onboarding, organizations will monitor behavioral biometrics and device patterns to reverify identity at risky moments (payments, password resets and high value transactions) limiting the window for account takeovers and synthetic profiles to operate.
Defense against injection attacks: liveness detection will help distinguish a real human session from emulators, prerecorded videos and screen injection tools reducing false accepts while keeping friction appropriately low for legitimate users.

Threat patterns and regulatory expectations differ across geographical regions from the prevalence of sophisticated document forgeries to the legal bases for processing biometric data. Leaders will fine tune models, journeys and risk thresholds to these realities while pursuing globally consistent levels of customer experience.

“Generative AI is driving new fraud tactics, and next gen identity platforms must adapt.”

2. Accelerated release of Digital IDs and mDLs

Digital IDs are reusable, verified credentials issued by trusted authorities that allow individuals to prove their identity online instantly and securely. Instead of uploading documents or filling out forms, customers can share pre-verified identity data from their smartphone wallet in seconds. This shift turns identity checks into a frictionless experience and reduces operational costs for businesses.

Regulation as a catalyst: Regulatory frameworks are accelerating adoption. eIDAS 2.0 in Europe sets clear interoperability and security standards, while other regions are introducing trust frameworks and compliance obligations that favor Digital ID use for KYC, AML and Strong Customer Authentication. Businesses that fail to prepare risk higher onboarding costs, heavier review queues and exposure to synthetic identity fraud.
Adoption curve parallels: It took time for consumers to widely adopt mobile wallets for payments. While we don’t expect digital ID adoption to take that long, businesses should anticipate a learning curve over the next two years as users become familiar with this next wave of identity verification.
Business impact: continued roll out of Digital IDs will deliver significant benefits for businesses. Faster onboarding and higher conversion rates will become achievable as customers verify using credentials they already hold, eliminating manual data entry and document uploads.
Privacy and inoperability: cross-border interoperability will unlock new use cases in travel and eCommerce, enabling seamless transactions across regions. Privacy-first journeys will allow users to share only the attributes required for a transaction, improving trust and user experience.

Digital IDs enable scalable secure user friendly verification that reduce data exposure and accelerate onboarding, ultimately supporting KYC/AML obligations and better customer experiences. Both governments and private organizations are pushing hard to roll out digital IDs and mobile driver’s licenses (mDLs) at scale. These innovations promise faster onboarding, improved security and greater convenience for consumers, but it’s key that within this complex patchwork of Digital IDs schemes, businesses make identity effortless and rewarding for real people.

The future belongs to businesses that offer choice, and flexibility, making identity as easy as modern payments. So, to be successful, Digital IDs need to fit seamlessly into a business’ existing identity ecosystem, not operate in silo.

3. 2026 will see a rise in agentic commerce

The age of agentic commerce, where consumers rely on AI agents for shopping and transactions, is arriving. In fact, this year’s Black Friday went big on AI. Instead of battling crowds, shoppers turned to AI chatbots to hunt for deals. The result? U.S. retail traffic driven by AI jumped a staggering 805% compared to last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Globally, AI and agents helped influence $14.2 billion in online sales - $3 billion of that from the U.S. alone, according to Salesforce.

That changes how merchants and platforms think about identity and delivery risk:

Dynamic real-time address verification: static address databases give way to geospatial APIs, authoritative datasets and contextual signals that validate deliverability and flag risky drop points.
Behaviour aware checks: AI driven analysis of digital footprints (how, where and when an address is used) helps identify anomalies like mule addresses, reshippers and synthetic householding patterns that evade simpler.
Emerging decentralisation: as ecosystems mature, blockchain and decentralized methods may support tamper resistant address attestations for high -risk flows complementing traditional address and delivery intelligence.

This shift creates a convergence between address verification, agent identity and decentralised identity (DID) frameworks. Businesses will need to validate not only the delivery address but also the legitimacy of the agent initiating the transaction. This is where “Know Your Agent” protocols come into play. This Know Your Agent process ensures that every agent is cryptographically bound to a verified individual or organization, reducing the risk of fraud and unauthorized transactions.

Incorporating accurate real-time address intelligence is vital to fraud prevention, compliance and customer trust. This is critical in the eCommerce sector where fulfillment risk directly impacts margins and satisfaction

4. Regulation will drive innovation and accountability

In many cases, regulators aren’t trailing innovation — they’re driving it. Rules are being reshaped at speed, but not evenly. Cross-border differences mean global businesses face a mix of fresh opportunities and complex challenges. For example, in Australia Tranche 2 reforms takes full effect from 1 July 2026, in Europe eIDAS 2.0 is shaping to release of digital IDs and more states in the US are considering expanded gaming regulations in 2026.

Rules are evolving quickly, and while they vary across markets, they’re opening doors for new strategies and services. To turn regulation into an advantage, businesses need to go beyond compliance and focus on strategic execution.

Privacy-first design and consent management. Regulations are increasingly focused on transparency and lawful processing of identity data. Businesses must embed consent capture and audit trails into every identity flow. This not only satisfies legal requirements but also builds trust with customers
Proactive intelligence to fight tomorrow’s fraud. Compliance isn’t static rules change as fraud tactics evolve. Organizations that invest in predictive analytics and cross-channel intelligence will be better positioned to anticipate regulatory shifts and emerging threats.
Regional trends shaping onboarding. In Southeast Asia, regulators are tightening KYC and AML requirements while fraudsters exploit digital adoption gaps. Expect more emphasis on layered identity and risk-based authentication to satisfy both regulators and customers.

Regulatory pressure is pushing organizations toward auditable, privacy-centric identity systems that are agile enough to adapt to new fraud patterns. Those that embrace compliance as a design principle, not an afterthought, will gain a competitive edge in trust and operational resilience.

5. Greater utilisation of insights to support fast paced changes in identity

Identity is no longer a single-point solution, it’s an ecosystem challenge that demands agility and intelligence. In 2026, businesses will increasingly need to rely on unified identity platforms that consolidate multiple capabilities, deliver actionable insights at speed and are primed to quickly add additional capabilities as news waves of identity emerge

From fragmented tools to unified orchestration: many organisations still rely on siloed KYC systems and manual integrations. These fragmented setups slow onboarding, increase operational costs and make it harder to adapt to new fraud patterns or regulatory changes. A unified platform eliminates these pain points by bringing authoritative data, biometrics, address intelligence, digital identities and fraud analytics under one system.
Modular flexibility for diverse industries: businesses need modular solutions that allow them to activate only the capabilities they require, test new workflows within manual and AI parameters and scale quickly without heavy engineering effort. This flexibility ensures compliance and fraud prevention without sacrificing customer experience.
Insights that drive smarter decisions: a single platform provides analytics that help businesses understand risk trends, optimise onboarding flows and drive continuous risk monitoring. Utilizing AI framework, these automated insights enable proactive fraud prevention and continuous improvement, turning identity verification from a cost center into a strategic advantage.

A single adaptive identity platform simplifies integration, improves accuracy and accelerates onboarding. Our all-in-one identity platform, GBG Go, is supported by best-in-class industry recommendations, that provides comprehensive capabilities through a single API. It also makes it easier to build trust at every step of the customer journey, while staying ahead of fraud and regulatory change.

Looking ahead

In 2026, the most resilient organizations will be those that confidently ride the next waves of identity rather than resist it. They’ll verify identities faster and more accurately with AI, share less data through Digital IDs and selective disclosure and prove compliance on demand thanks to embedded governance.

Identity will no longer be a set of disconnected tools; it will become a platform capability — orchestrating documents, biometrics, addresses and fraud analytics as a cohesive system.

Just as previous waves layered data, biometrics and behavioural signals, the coming waves will unify these elements under adaptive, AI-driven orchestration. The result? A better balance of growth, risk reduction and customer experience.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why is AI becoming so critical in identity verification?

AI is essential because fraudsters are using generative AI to create deepfakes, synthetic identities and advanced injection attacks. AI-powered verification tools can detect subtle anomalies in documents, biometrics and behavioral behavioural patterns that traditional methods miss, reducing fraud without adding friction.

What is agentic commerce and why does it matter for identity verification?

Agentic commerce refers to AI agents that shop and transact on behalf of consumers. This trend introduces new identity challenges because transactions may occur without direct human involvement. Businesses will need dynamic address verification and protocols to bind agents to verify individuals to prevent fraud.

How will digital identity wallets change onboarding?

Digital IDs allow users to share verified attributes selectively, such as age or residency, without exposing unnecessary personal data. This improves privacy, speeds up onboarding and helps businesses meet compliance requirements while reducing friction.

What regulations should businesses prepare for in 2026?

Look for increased interest around biometric data, consent and AI governance. Organizations will need auditable AI pipelines, lawful bases for processing identity signals and privacy-by-design frameworks to comply with evolving global standards.

What is the benefit of moving to a single adaptive identity platform?

A unified platform consolidates document verification, biometrics, address intelligence and fraud analytics under one orchestrated system. This reduces integration complexity, speeds up policy changes and improves accuracy, helping businesses adapt quickly to new threats and regulations.